March Madness Bracket Advice

March Madness is upon us! No better reason to bust out the blog for a rare basketball post.  My good friend Mr. Parks inspired me to post thanks to his fantastic article on bracket strategies.

The last few years I've had quite a bit of success in my brackets - last year my main bracket was 80% correct and had 3 of the Final four teams and the correct eventual national champion.  If you read Parks' post, I go with the analytical approach, mostly.  I don't claim to be an expert on the inner minutae of each team, but that doesn't mean I can't play the odds.

If you're looking for a good tip-off point for your brackets, start here:

1. Enough with the ridiculous upsets...
Don't bother picking against the 1, 2, and 3 seeds in all of the regions' first round.  The 1-16 upset has never happened, and the 2-15 and 3-14 upsets happen so rarely that its not worth the risk.  This year, 4-13 upsets are very possible - The 13-seeds Oakland and Belmont are both underrated, methinks.

Last year, the 14-seed Ohio Bobcats teabagged 3-seed Georgetown.  Yikes.

2. The unexpected should be expected...
In only one year have all four 1-seeds made it to the Final Four.  It is almost certain that at least one of the top teams will falter.  Don't be afraid to have the 1-seed go down.  While no one expected Kansas to lose to Northern Iowa last year (honestly...wtf, Fighting Bill Selfs?) any of the 2, 3, 4, and 5 seeds can give their respective 1-seeds a run for their money.

I hate you bastards for ruining my bracket, but thanks for taking out Kansas...I guess

Sorry, Big East, but your shit's fucked.

3. Teams have reputations...
Tom Izzo is king of March.  I always try to make a realistic guess on how MSU will do...then I change my bracket to have them winning one more game.  Wisconsin? Constantly underachieves in March.  They have beaten only one team above a 9-seed since 2000 (upset 5-seed FSU a couple years back).  Big East teams have typically underachieved in the recent years and the Pac-10 has definitely sagged in quality teams recently.  Keep reputations in mind.  If you don't know any reputations, go ask the nearest non-hipster male (basketball is too mainstream for them); they'll give you a couple tidbits.




4. If you are stuck on a matchup, check out the teams' stats...
Mainly the "Minutes" column over the entire year.  2 games in 2 days is rough on any team, but especially so on a team that only plays 7 players regularly.  You'll hear analysts talk about "depth" a lot and poor depth is amplified in March.  If a team has a lot of guys averaging over 10 minutes a game, they'll probably do better in the second round and Elite 8 than the teams who only have 6 or 7 guys in their regular rotation.

5. Have a little fun, people...
Don't spend hours comparing teams on paper, looking up their strength of schedule, RPI, type of defensive scheme they use, etc.  The madness of March defies all "how they look on paper" decisions.  Sure, do a little digging - you want to know if their best PF just got kicked off the team for *gasp* doing the nasty with his gf - but don't over think it because it just starts to follow the law of diminishing returns.  Go with your gut a little bit and see what happens.  Also, make embarrassing bets with your friends.  I better see streakers galore and someone chugging a gallon of chocolate milk in the library by the end of the weekend.

Magic: You da man, Izzo
Izzo: SHUT UP, I KNOW IT.

There you have it.  Those are some the rules I follow and it has worked pretty well for me so far.  cbssports.com will be streaming a large chunk, if not all, games online so check there if you have no idea what channel "TruTV" is.  I hate that college basketball is on the artist-formally-known-as-Court-TV.  Good luck and Go Green!

Switching to the Hardwood - MSU @ Illinois tonight!

Hello all, I'm back from the long Winter Break where I was without internet access.  I know you all were super pumped after that fantastic showing at the Capital One Bowl so I apologize for not talking about the highlights of that game ...... okay there were no good things about that game.  Guess it's good that I left that alone.  ON TO BASKETBALL!!!

MSU's Kalin Lucas missed last year's visit to Chambana with an ankle injury.  I'm sure he wants a crack at the Illini.

MSU @ Illinois - 7pm on ESPN

Gotta love Big Ten Basketball.  Illinois was a trendy pick to win the conference this year and they are still very much in the race, despite dropping their last two games to Wisconsin and Penn State.  Yes, that same PSU team that beat the Spartans 10 days ago.  The biggest key to this game? Individual matchups.  I'll break down each position.

PG - Demetri McCamey vs. Lucas/Lucious/Appling/Kebler
McCamey is a hell of a player.  He's averaging 16 points a game, can score from anywhere on the floor, and also takes care of the ball extremely well.  On top of that, he's a 4-year starter so he's seen it all.  Solution? Try everything.  Expect a lot of substitutions from Izzo to keep MSU's guards fresh on defense.  Freshman Keith Appling has been stepping up in a big way on the defensive end recently but this will undoubtedly be his biggest test so far.  Lucas and Lucious will both get a shot, however they both give up a couple inches and a lot of weight to McCamey.  McCamey is a solid defender, as well, so this will be the position to watch for the night.

SG - DJ Richardson vs. Lucas/Lucious/Summers
Richardson is a young talent but he's been less than impressive in Big Ten play.  He scored 17 against Iowa a few weeks ago...but c'mon, it's Iowa.  He's mainly a perimeter threat that doesn't drive very often.  It sounds odd, but guarding him will be a welcome break from McCamey for the guards

SF - Bill Cole vs. Summers/Green/Thornton
Cole is pretty big for the 3 spot (6'9") but he just hasn't been productive.  Cole is averaging 6 points and 2 rebounds per game.  The threat comes from his ability to shoot the 3 - he's shooting 43% from behind the arc, which is close to what Summers, Green, Lucas, and Appling shoot from 3.  Green (6'7") has had trouble scoring on the inside against taller players, but Cole is pretty light for his size and could probably be outmuscled by the more robust Draymond.

PF - Mike Davis vs. Roe/Green
Davis is another bright talent for the Illini.  Definitely not a 3-point threat, but he has developed a solid inside game with great footwork and fundamentals.  Delvon Roe matches up with him quite well and has been absolutely dominant on the defensive side of the ball the last few games.  Roe has been pretty quiet on the offensive side, however, but him wearing down Davis on the other end might make it easier for him.  Unless Roe is needed elsewhere...

C - Mike Tisdale vs. Roe/Nix/Sherman/Payne
Tisdale is a 7'1", 250 lb center that has also developed a good post game, similar to Davis.  His length has been a huge problem for the Spartans in the past and it doesn't get any easier this year.  Sherman and Payne have the length to guard him, but both are not nearly as strong or have the experience as the 4th year giant.  Nix could definitely throw his weight around just fine, but he has been in the doghouse with Izzo lately and doesn't have the footwork on the offensive end to be effective.  This situation will probably look more like damage control than an attempt to stop him, so don't tear your hair out if Tisdale scores 15 tonight.

SUMMARY
Illinois is big.  Bigger than the Spartans.  It's going to be tough for the frontcourt of MSU to score points against the Illinois big men so the best way to get out of Chambana with a W is to limit Illinois on the offensive end.  Expect a lot of switching up from Izzo to give different looks on D - if MSU can limit two of Illinois' three big threats (Tisdale, Davis, and McCamey) the game will go pretty smooth.  Go Green!

Take Three

Sorry, couldn't help myself

It'll be back to Orlando for the MSU Spartans to take on the Nick Saban-led Alabama Crimson Tide.  For all my band friends, I believe that would be "Go State, Beat the Tide."  Although many were hoping the BCS would realize MSU is more deserving of a bowl slot over Ohio State, it's hard to see someone turning down a higher payout from the OSU fanbase.  In any case, the Capital One bowl is the best non-BCS bowl out there.  Actually, it's probably better than 2 BCS bowls - expect UConn and VaTech to get blown out in the Fiesta and Orange bowls, respectively.
A brief history lesson for all you kids: Nick Saban was head coach at MSU between 1994-1999.  In 1999, after leading his team to a 9-2 record, Saban suddenly resigned after the last game of the season to take the head coaching job at LSU.  His name was in the media constantly with regards to his job, but several of his players have stated that Coach Saban had said he wasn't going to skip town suddenly....and then he did.  Saban has risen to the top of the coaching food chain, winning a national title at LSU and at Alabama.  Additionally, Mark Dantonio served as the Secondary Coach under Saban - that's where his original MSU ties come from.
I'll put up a solid analysis closer to the bowl, but the one interesting thing to watch will be the Spartan run defense against a very potent rushing attack from Alabama.  2009 Heisman Winner Mark Ingram (from Flint, MI) teams up with the speedy Trent Richardson to create one hell of a ground attack.  Greg Jones and Eric Gordon make up one of the best run-stopping duos in the country, so it'll be one of those unstoppable force vs. unmovable wall kind of games.
The other thing, off the top of my head, is to see what QB will make fewer mistakes.  Kirk Cousins has been banged up recently, but put up fantastic numbers in his final regular season game.  They may not look impressive on paper, but pretty damn good if you consider it was 30 degrees and windy that day.  Alabama's Greg McElroy is 4th in the country in completion percentage and has been very solid all year.  This will easily be the biggest test the revamped MSU secondary has seen all year.

In short, if you're feeling like MSU got snubbed, they did.  The best way to show that is if MSU shows up and wins this game so the pollsters take notice.  An MSU team that went 12-1 and beat Wisconsin and Alabama in the same season will do wonders for the Spartan brand identity and make the team much harder to pass over in years to come.  I hope many of you considering the bowl trip will pull the trigger on a plane ticket!  Also, a large congratulations to the senior class of the Spartan Marching Band that will be going to a 4th bowl game in 4 years - that has happened only one other time in the history of the band.  Enjoy, and Go Green!

Treadwell Interviews for IU Job

MSU Offensive Coordinator Don Treadwell has interviewed for the head coaching vacancy at Indiana University.  IU has been looking at a number of coaches after the firing of Bill Lynch and it's no surprise that Treadwell was on that list.  His name has come up a number of times for MAC job openings in recent years.

This is far from a done deal but it wouldn't be a shock if Treadwell took the job.  However, it should be noted that his son, Blake Treadwell, is currently a Defensive Tackle (and a pretty good one) at MSU currently.  Many speculate he'll stay until his son graduates, but I don't think the younger Treadwell would mind if his dad became a Big Ten Head Coach.  It would also be interesting due to the fact that Indiana becomes a protected rival of Michigan State starting next year.

OC Treadwell did a phenomenal job of heading the team in Dantonio's absence and also in recent recruiting, so whatever decision he makes, he'll be successful.  I would expect Treadwell to wait until after the bowl game to announce if he's leaving - that's a distraction the team does not need.  BEGIN TREADWELL WATCH 2010!!!

BCS-Worthy or Trapped in Orlando?

Happy Friday, everyone.  Students, it is now officially time to stop blowing all your money on booze and actually study for a few weeks.  Studying the college football landscape counts.  It's the last weekend of the regular season, which means conference championship games and upsets.  Almost every year, this weekend causes the BCS to go all out of whack and makes the guys at ESPN shit their pants with excitement.  Let's take a look:

Big Ten
We'll start with the Big Ten, naturally.  As I stated before, very little has changed in the Big Ten picture, BCS-wise.  Wisconsin is still ahead of OSU, who is ahead of MSU by two spots.  By Big Ten rules, Wisconsin would get the Rose Bowl berth, since they hold the highest BCS Ranking.  I'm not sure where that rule originally came from, but we use it because it's written on a giant stone tablet in a reinforced bunker underneath Big Ten headquarters in Chicago.
However, another BCS bowl will certainly pick a Big Ten team as an "at-large" and that selection has no restrictions.  MSU Athletic Director Mark Hollis has been lobbying hard to get MSU to a BCS bowl instead of Ohio State, the effects of which are showing up in the national spotlight.  However, Hollis is fighting an uphill battle, to say the least.  Ohio State has one of the largest fan bases in the country and have always shown up well for their bowl.  MSU's angle, however, is that they have gotten the highest ratings on ABC/ESPN games in the Big Ten (that means $$$$), plus they beat the supposed "best" team in the Big Ten.  The at-large spot will come down to the wire.  If MSU doesn't make the BCS, they will most likely be back in Orlando for the 3rd time in 4 years.

Conference Championships/Rivalry Games
There's some interesting football on the way this weekend.  Oregon (ranked #2) visits rival Oregon State this weekend.  Regardless of rankings, Oregon has normally struggled in Corvallis - between 1997-2007, the Ducks didn't get one win on the Beavers home turf.  I recommend watching that one - Oregon State's fans are absolutely nuts for this game.  SEC Championship puts Auburn up against South Carolina, with the Tigers being an overwhelming favorite.  Auburn has plenty of motivation - they win, they go to the championship game.

Automatic BCS berths are on the line in the ACC and Big 12 Championship games, as well.  Florida State - Virginia Tech and Oklahoma - Nebraska should both be great games.  Finally, feel free to watch UConn at South Florida.  It's hilarious how mediocre the Big East Conference is this year - the same UConn team that got trampled by barely-bowl-eligible Michigan goes to a BCS game if they win.  Make sure you play Yakety Sax at least 4 times during the game.  I promise it will be appropriate.

I'll leave you with my predictions for the Big Ten Conference Bowls.  The selection show is this Sunday at 8pm, I believe, for BCS games.  The rest of the bowls should be online at the same time:

Rose (Pasadena, CA): Wisconsin
Sugar (New Orleans, LA): Ohio State
Capital One (Orlando, FL): Michigan State
Outback Bowl (Tampa, FL): Iowa
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL): Michigan
Insight Bowl (Tempe, AZ): Penn State
Texas Bowl (Houston, TX): Northwestern
TicketCity Bowl (Dallas, TX): Illinois