March Madness Bracket Advice

March Madness is upon us! No better reason to bust out the blog for a rare basketball post.  My good friend Mr. Parks inspired me to post thanks to his fantastic article on bracket strategies.

The last few years I've had quite a bit of success in my brackets - last year my main bracket was 80% correct and had 3 of the Final four teams and the correct eventual national champion.  If you read Parks' post, I go with the analytical approach, mostly.  I don't claim to be an expert on the inner minutae of each team, but that doesn't mean I can't play the odds.

If you're looking for a good tip-off point for your brackets, start here:

1. Enough with the ridiculous upsets...
Don't bother picking against the 1, 2, and 3 seeds in all of the regions' first round.  The 1-16 upset has never happened, and the 2-15 and 3-14 upsets happen so rarely that its not worth the risk.  This year, 4-13 upsets are very possible - The 13-seeds Oakland and Belmont are both underrated, methinks.

Last year, the 14-seed Ohio Bobcats teabagged 3-seed Georgetown.  Yikes.

2. The unexpected should be expected...
In only one year have all four 1-seeds made it to the Final Four.  It is almost certain that at least one of the top teams will falter.  Don't be afraid to have the 1-seed go down.  While no one expected Kansas to lose to Northern Iowa last year (honestly...wtf, Fighting Bill Selfs?) any of the 2, 3, 4, and 5 seeds can give their respective 1-seeds a run for their money.

I hate you bastards for ruining my bracket, but thanks for taking out Kansas...I guess

Sorry, Big East, but your shit's fucked.

3. Teams have reputations...
Tom Izzo is king of March.  I always try to make a realistic guess on how MSU will do...then I change my bracket to have them winning one more game.  Wisconsin? Constantly underachieves in March.  They have beaten only one team above a 9-seed since 2000 (upset 5-seed FSU a couple years back).  Big East teams have typically underachieved in the recent years and the Pac-10 has definitely sagged in quality teams recently.  Keep reputations in mind.  If you don't know any reputations, go ask the nearest non-hipster male (basketball is too mainstream for them); they'll give you a couple tidbits.




4. If you are stuck on a matchup, check out the teams' stats...
Mainly the "Minutes" column over the entire year.  2 games in 2 days is rough on any team, but especially so on a team that only plays 7 players regularly.  You'll hear analysts talk about "depth" a lot and poor depth is amplified in March.  If a team has a lot of guys averaging over 10 minutes a game, they'll probably do better in the second round and Elite 8 than the teams who only have 6 or 7 guys in their regular rotation.

5. Have a little fun, people...
Don't spend hours comparing teams on paper, looking up their strength of schedule, RPI, type of defensive scheme they use, etc.  The madness of March defies all "how they look on paper" decisions.  Sure, do a little digging - you want to know if their best PF just got kicked off the team for *gasp* doing the nasty with his gf - but don't over think it because it just starts to follow the law of diminishing returns.  Go with your gut a little bit and see what happens.  Also, make embarrassing bets with your friends.  I better see streakers galore and someone chugging a gallon of chocolate milk in the library by the end of the weekend.

Magic: You da man, Izzo
Izzo: SHUT UP, I KNOW IT.

There you have it.  Those are some the rules I follow and it has worked pretty well for me so far.  cbssports.com will be streaming a large chunk, if not all, games online so check there if you have no idea what channel "TruTV" is.  I hate that college basketball is on the artist-formally-known-as-Court-TV.  Good luck and Go Green!

Switching to the Hardwood - MSU @ Illinois tonight!

Hello all, I'm back from the long Winter Break where I was without internet access.  I know you all were super pumped after that fantastic showing at the Capital One Bowl so I apologize for not talking about the highlights of that game ...... okay there were no good things about that game.  Guess it's good that I left that alone.  ON TO BASKETBALL!!!

MSU's Kalin Lucas missed last year's visit to Chambana with an ankle injury.  I'm sure he wants a crack at the Illini.

MSU @ Illinois - 7pm on ESPN

Gotta love Big Ten Basketball.  Illinois was a trendy pick to win the conference this year and they are still very much in the race, despite dropping their last two games to Wisconsin and Penn State.  Yes, that same PSU team that beat the Spartans 10 days ago.  The biggest key to this game? Individual matchups.  I'll break down each position.

PG - Demetri McCamey vs. Lucas/Lucious/Appling/Kebler
McCamey is a hell of a player.  He's averaging 16 points a game, can score from anywhere on the floor, and also takes care of the ball extremely well.  On top of that, he's a 4-year starter so he's seen it all.  Solution? Try everything.  Expect a lot of substitutions from Izzo to keep MSU's guards fresh on defense.  Freshman Keith Appling has been stepping up in a big way on the defensive end recently but this will undoubtedly be his biggest test so far.  Lucas and Lucious will both get a shot, however they both give up a couple inches and a lot of weight to McCamey.  McCamey is a solid defender, as well, so this will be the position to watch for the night.

SG - DJ Richardson vs. Lucas/Lucious/Summers
Richardson is a young talent but he's been less than impressive in Big Ten play.  He scored 17 against Iowa a few weeks ago...but c'mon, it's Iowa.  He's mainly a perimeter threat that doesn't drive very often.  It sounds odd, but guarding him will be a welcome break from McCamey for the guards

SF - Bill Cole vs. Summers/Green/Thornton
Cole is pretty big for the 3 spot (6'9") but he just hasn't been productive.  Cole is averaging 6 points and 2 rebounds per game.  The threat comes from his ability to shoot the 3 - he's shooting 43% from behind the arc, which is close to what Summers, Green, Lucas, and Appling shoot from 3.  Green (6'7") has had trouble scoring on the inside against taller players, but Cole is pretty light for his size and could probably be outmuscled by the more robust Draymond.

PF - Mike Davis vs. Roe/Green
Davis is another bright talent for the Illini.  Definitely not a 3-point threat, but he has developed a solid inside game with great footwork and fundamentals.  Delvon Roe matches up with him quite well and has been absolutely dominant on the defensive side of the ball the last few games.  Roe has been pretty quiet on the offensive side, however, but him wearing down Davis on the other end might make it easier for him.  Unless Roe is needed elsewhere...

C - Mike Tisdale vs. Roe/Nix/Sherman/Payne
Tisdale is a 7'1", 250 lb center that has also developed a good post game, similar to Davis.  His length has been a huge problem for the Spartans in the past and it doesn't get any easier this year.  Sherman and Payne have the length to guard him, but both are not nearly as strong or have the experience as the 4th year giant.  Nix could definitely throw his weight around just fine, but he has been in the doghouse with Izzo lately and doesn't have the footwork on the offensive end to be effective.  This situation will probably look more like damage control than an attempt to stop him, so don't tear your hair out if Tisdale scores 15 tonight.

SUMMARY
Illinois is big.  Bigger than the Spartans.  It's going to be tough for the frontcourt of MSU to score points against the Illinois big men so the best way to get out of Chambana with a W is to limit Illinois on the offensive end.  Expect a lot of switching up from Izzo to give different looks on D - if MSU can limit two of Illinois' three big threats (Tisdale, Davis, and McCamey) the game will go pretty smooth.  Go Green!