Preview: MSU @ Michigan

Time to put up or shut up.  I'm actually going to have some actual football analysis this week.  It's worth it.  If you want to skip all that, scroll to the bottom because I made a drinking game for tomorrow.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

The Denard Robinson Show

Spartans, enough of the blind hatred.  Robinson is putting up Heisman like numbers.  Yes, he's doing it against cupcakes, but other Heisman contenders aren't putting up numbers like that against their cupcakes.  He's a talented player.  That being said, Michigan fans, there are several holes in his game that are actually going to show up Saturday.

1. Running game - Robinson is a fantastic runner in space.  He isn't shifty or resourceful with his body position, but he has some of the best top-end speed in the Big Ten.  However, Robinson cannot make a living between-the-tackles.  DRob has been slightly banged up a couple times this year, but if Robinson is forced to go between his offensive linemen, he's going to feel pretty bad by the 3rd quarter.

2. Passing game - Michigan's scheme is designed for misdirection and most passes are usually shorter since the WR's are more than solid making plays happen after they catch the ball.  Robinson hasn't had to sit in the pocket for very long, as a result of this.  Earlier this week, Robinson admitted that most of his "reads" of the defense were actually done by the coaching staff, who signaled to him on the field.  On 3rd and long situations, he's going to need to step it up a notch as a passer.

The MSU Defense

Much has been made about the MSU defense and it's improvement from last year.  I'll be the first one to agree, since the individual play of the DB's has been better and the defensive line is getting deeper.  However, a few points...

1. Running game - The Spartans have been fantastic in that aspect and they've done it by being disciplined and tackling well.  Everyone knows Greg Jones and his mile-long resume, but LB Eric Gordon is constantly overshadowed.  Eric Gordon is currently 2nd on the list of active career tackles leaders (behind...WHO?!) and has been steady this year.  Gordon was playing the game of his life against ND, recording 5 tackles in a QUARTER before he went out with an injury.  However, the Spartans were burned twice against Wisconsin by letting runners get to the outside.  This is Denard Robinson's forte, so the Spartans have to pick it up to stop him.

2. Passing game - Starting CB's Chris L Rucker and Johnny Adams have done a stand up job against opponents.  They don't go for the interception very often, but they have been on their man like glue all season.  The weakness of the passing defense, now, is the safety position and oddly enough, the LB's.  Most of Michigan's passes are shorter and more times than not the Spartan LB's will be responsible for them.

MSU Offense vs. Michigan Defense

This point is very simple.  Yikes. Michigan's Defense is atrocious.  As bad as the Spartans were against the pass last year, Michigan is worse.  They rank last - dead last - in the country in pass defense and are 102nd in total defense (that's out of 120).  Here's some powerhouses that play better defenses: Duke, Marshall, Memphis, UAB, San Jose State, UNLV, and Florida Atlantic.  All of those schools have only won one game this year.  Expect to hear the phrase "pass complete to Mark Dell/BJ Cunningham/Charlie Gantt" quite a bit tomorrow.  Although UM's rush defense is considerably better, it is still not great and there's no reason not to expect one of the best running duo's in the country won't be able to run all over them.  Expect some points.

Although many are predicting a shootout game - UM can score on anybody and anybody can score on UM - I'm going a different way.  It will still be close, but I think MSU takes more time off the clock than UM would like because of their running game.  Robinson still has a big day, but not as prolific as we have seen the past few weeks.

Prediction: MSU 34, Michigan 28

OKAY NOW THATS OVER LETS GET OUR DRINK ON
Watch the game, grab a beer:

Drink 1 anytime...
...announcer mentions Denard Robinson's shoes/shoelaces/velcro
...announcer says the word "Heisman"
...announcer mentions anything related to Dantonio's health
...either team gets a first down

Drink 2 anytime...
...Greg Jones makes a tackle
...either team makes a play of 10 yards or more
...the announcers bust out that yellow highlighter pen on replays

Drink 3 anytime...
...either team ATTEMPTS a field goal (lets be honest, UM's not going to make one)
...either QB is sacked
...a video clip from a past MSU/UM game is played

Drink 4 anytime...
...either team intercepts a pass
...a fumble occurs
...either team scores a touchdown

In the event of overtime, one beer must be consumed for each overtime period.  That is all.  Enjoy.  Go Green.