Football 101 - Rose Bowl Tiebreakers

4 weeks of Big Ten play to go, 4 teams tied atop the standings.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, MSU, and Iowa all have one loss in conference play and the results of the next few weeks will determine who gets to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.  Exciting? Yes. Bad News? The tiebreaker rules are the literary equivalent to an Escher painting.  Here's the remaining schedule for each team.  The bolded match-ups are the ones that each team will be heavily favored in...

MSU: Minnesota, BYE, Purdue, @ Penn State
OSU: BYE, Penn State, @ Iowa, Michigan
Wisky: @Purdue, Indiana, @ Michigan, Northwestern
Iowa: @Indiana, @ Northwestern, OSU, @ Minnesota


I'm leaving Penn State as a question mark...Both MSU and OSU will be favored against them in their match-up, but not as intensely as the other games.  As you can see, it looks like MSU and Wisconsin have a good chance to win out, leaving both with a 7-1 conference record.  Additionally, the winner of the Iowa/OSU game will likely finish with a 7-1 record.  So where do we go from here???

You may remember a similar debacle between MSU, Penn State, and Ohio State that occured in 2008 - if MSU had beaten PSU in the last game of the season, all three would've had 1 conference loss and MSU would have gone to the Rose Bowl due to tiebreaker rules.  The added wrinkle this year is that MSU and OSU did not play each other.  So let's assume two scenarios...

SCENARIO 1 - Iowa beats Ohio State

Final Standings:
MSU 11-1 (7-1)
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
Iowa 10-2 (7-1)
Ohio State 10-2 (6-2)

Here's the progression of tiebreakers for 3 teams, per the Big Ten Conference.  They go down this list, in order:

1. If one of the tied teams beat the other two, that team goes. Doesn't apply.  Iowa lost to Wisconsin, Wisconsin lost to MSU, MSU lost to Iowa.

2. If two of the three teams beat the third team, third team is eliminated and you go to the 2-team tiebreaker. Again, doesn't apply

Thanks, Herky, for getting owned by Arizona's DLine

3. If one team has worse OVERALL record than other two, they are eliminated from consideration.  In this case, Iowa's extra loss eliminates them from the Rose Bowl discussion.


We are now down to a two-team tie between MSU and Wisconsin.  Since MSU beat Wisconsin during the season, MSU smells roses! But what about the other scenario???












SCENARIO 2 - Ohio State beats Iowa

MSU 11-1 (7-1)

Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)

Ohio State 11-1 (7-1)

Iowa 9-3 (6-2)

Once again, the first 2 rules do not apply.  Additionally, the tied teams all have the same overall record.  MOAR RULES PLZ

4. If three teams are still tied, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative. The latest BCS standings have Wisconsin at 9, Ohio State at 11, and MSU at 14.  Ohio State will likely jump the Badgers in the next few weeks, if they both continue winning - Ohio State has a stronger out-of-conference win against the Miami Hurricanes and their computer average will be bumped after a win against the Hawkeyes.  There's a chance Wisconsin could squeak in, but most likely Ohio State will go to the Rose Bowl.  If both Wisconsin and OSU keep winning, there is no chance MSU will jump them, regardless of how they do.

The Bobcat just did what we all wanted to do...

So there you have it! If MSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa all win their last batch of games, MSU goes to the Rose Bowl.  I suggest you park your ass in front of the TV on November 20th and perform whatever superstitious ritual you know to enable Iowa to beat Ohio State. 

Wrap Up: MSU @ Iowa

Apologies from yours truly for being absent this week.  I've been battling a virus that's been going around campus recently and this fell by the wayside a bit.  Didn't make it any easier with what happened on Saturday...

In case you missed the second half because you were blackout drunk, final score was 37-6.  There's something about big games that plays mind games with the Spartans.  After coming out flat in the first half against Illinois and Northwestern, it seemed like the team would recognize and respond knowing that the same couldn't be done against one of the best defenses in the country.  The problem, it seems, is that after 9 weeks of football, the team is emotionally and physically drained.  Although it may not seem like it due to the lack of players sitting out, the only logical conclusion is that there was not enough left in the tank to play the best game of the season on Saturday.

Kirk Cousins had arguably his worst game in a Spartans uniform.  It happens.  It's easy to see that he takes the team's performance very personally and puts a lot of pressure on himself to perform.  A little factoid that many didn't know going into the game is that he grew up a die-hard Iowa fan - his grandfather and great uncle played football for the Hawkeyes and his mom was a member of the dance team.  It's understandable that he'd put additional pressure on himself to play better for his family.  He made some very odd mistakes - fundamental errors that he hasn't made (to that degree) before in his career.  His ankle (which he broke in HS) has been taped up for the last few weeks, but it's unclear if that had any effect on his game play.  In any case, he'll bounce back and be fine.

As for the rest of the team, bright spots were few and far between.  The offensive line got dominated in the trenches by Iowa's D-Line.  In all fairness, there are at least 2 NFL players on that line in Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard, but I did expect some better play from the line. The running game hardly put up any numbers, mainly because it was virtually abandoned because of the early deficit.  Even Greg Jones looked mediocre, as he uncharacteristically missed a couple tackles and made a few bad reads.

As for the positives?  The future looks to be in good hands.  Freshman William Gholston keeps getting better - he tallied 5 tackles including a half tackle-for-loss and he's only had 8 tackles in the previous 8 games.  Jerel Worthy, who has been double-teamed most of the season, did significantly better when he was one-on-one (thank you to the 360-lb Antonio Jeremiah for freeing him up).  RS Freshman Bennie Fowler, who caught the "Mouse Trap" pass, played for the injured Keshawn Martin and played like an upperclassman.  The defensive line as a whole is getting better at pressuring the QB, as well.

Anyone want to take a guess about what was said here???

Was the game a giant ass-whooping? You bet.  Should the team (and fans) be discouraged at all? No way.  The team's performance wasn't indicative of how they normally play.  There's 3 regular season games to go and the Spartans will still be favored in all of them.  There's numerous Rose Bowl tie-breakers to discuss, and I'll cover that in Football 101 tomorrow.  Next week's game is vs. Minnesota, Noon on the BTN.  Go Green!

AND SO IT BEGINS (part 1)

Welcome to Big Ten play.  No more cupcakes, no more easy wins, no more coasting through the 4th quarter.  Interesting developments have been few and far between in the non-conference slate, with the exception of the fake-FG and subsequent heart attack.  Speaking of which, Coach Dantonio will be in the press box this week!

The pick to win the Big Ten before the season started was Ohio State (SURPRISE!!!) and little has changed with that.  However, the middle of the conference has gotten a little more dicey.  I'll be putting up short blurbs about each team this week - 3 today, 4 tomorrow, and 4 Saturday.  We'll start with these 3!

Ohio State Buckeyes
Always stuffed full of talent, the Bucks have been scoring a lot of points and not allowing many.  You might be thinking "HEY! That's how you win games!" and you'd be correct.  They've already been kind of tested against Miami (FL) and did quite well.  However, they'll be going up against comparable and better opponents in the next 9 weeks.

Best Player - Terelle Pryor
Pryor had his coming of age tale in last year's Rose Bowl and he hasn't slowed down.  OSU has the 3rd most rushing yards in the country.  He's already passed for close to 1,000 yards and ran for another 240.  10 passing TD's and 2 interceptions.  That's solid for any QB, let alone one that leads their team in rushing as well.

Biggest Concern - Are they for real???
Remember that "kind of tested" against Miami?  That's their only claim to fame, really.  Their other opponents have been terrible, so it's easy to put up those kind of numbers.  Against a Big Ten schedule, they could look more human soon.


Iowa Hawkeyes
Coach Kirk Ferentz does one hell of a job considering he has to convince players to come (or even stay) in Iowa.  Iowa is one of the few remaining teams in the league that runs an in-your-face, smashmouth brand of football, but this year that might not work so well.  Injuries to their 1st and 2nd string RB's leave them a little thin.

Best Player - Adrian Clayborn
Clayborn could have gone pro last year and was co-Defensive Player of the Year with Greg Jones (who?).  He's a monster defensive linemen who demands a double-team on almost every play.  Can't say there's any clear weakness in his game.

Biggest Concern - Offensive Line
Iowa's revamped OLine has not looked like their corn-fed, mammoth predecessors.  Their pass-blocking has been suspect, as evidenced by the beatdown they got from Arizona's Defensive Line, especially in the 4th quarter.  They may be decent at run-blocking, but we won't know because there's a very inexperienced Freshman running the ball for them.



Indiana Hoosiers
IU hasn't had much success recently outside of their 7-5 year in 2007.  However, things might be looking up this year.  Indiana is 3-0 and has a dangerous passing game - they're 11th in the country in that area. They haven't come close to having a BCS opponent, so we'll find out very quickly if they are for real.  The Hoosiers also have the hardest, by far, Big Ten schedule in the conference - Michigan, @ OSU, Iowa, @Wisconsin, Penn State.


Best Player - Ben Chappell
After taking over for the now-dismissed Kellen Lewis in 2007(?) Chappell has developed into a solid QB.  They run a pass-oriented offense and Chappell has the mechanics and level-headed-ness to lead his team.  If his OLine can give him time, Indiana's offense will succeed.

 Biggest Concern - Defense....in general
Indiana's defense hasn't exactly been stellar against some lowly teams.  They're about to face some fantastic QB's in the next couple weeks - Denard Robinson, Terelle Pryor, Ricky Stanzi, Scott Tolzien, and Dan Persa.  The way they've looked on defense, those dual-threat guys might tear them apart.


Part 2 comes tomorrow: Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, and Minnesota.  Part 3 will be early Saturday: Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Purdue.