4 weeks of Big Ten play to go, 4 teams tied atop the standings. Wisconsin, Ohio State, MSU, and Iowa all have one loss in conference play and the results of the next few weeks will determine who gets to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Exciting? Yes. Bad News? The tiebreaker rules are the literary equivalent to an Escher painting. Here's the remaining schedule for each team. The bolded match-ups are the ones that each team will be heavily favored in...
MSU: Minnesota, BYE, Purdue, @ Penn State
OSU: BYE, Penn State, @ Iowa, Michigan
Wisky: @Purdue, Indiana, @ Michigan, Northwestern
Iowa: @Indiana, @ Northwestern, OSU, @ Minnesota
I'm leaving Penn State as a question mark...Both MSU and OSU will be favored against them in their match-up, but not as intensely as the other games. As you can see, it looks like MSU and Wisconsin have a good chance to win out, leaving both with a 7-1 conference record. Additionally, the winner of the Iowa/OSU game will likely finish with a 7-1 record. So where do we go from here???
You may remember a similar debacle between MSU, Penn State, and Ohio State that occured in 2008 - if MSU had beaten PSU in the last game of the season, all three would've had 1 conference loss and MSU would have gone to the Rose Bowl due to tiebreaker rules. The added wrinkle this year is that MSU and OSU did not play each other. So let's assume two scenarios...
SCENARIO 1 - Iowa beats Ohio State
Final Standings:
MSU 11-1 (7-1)
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
Iowa 10-2 (7-1)
Ohio State 10-2 (6-2)
Here's the progression of tiebreakers for 3 teams, per the Big Ten Conference. They go down this list, in order:
1. If one of the tied teams beat the other two, that team goes. Doesn't apply. Iowa lost to Wisconsin, Wisconsin lost to MSU, MSU lost to Iowa.
2. If two of the three teams beat the third team, third team is eliminated and you go to the 2-team tiebreaker. Again, doesn't apply
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| Thanks, Herky, for getting owned by Arizona's DLine |
We are now down to a two-team tie between MSU and Wisconsin. Since MSU beat Wisconsin during the season, MSU smells roses! But what about the other scenario???
SCENARIO 2 - Ohio State beats Iowa
MSU 11-1 (7-1)
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
Ohio State 11-1 (7-1)
Iowa 9-3 (6-2)
Once again, the first 2 rules do not apply. Additionally, the tied teams all have the same overall record. MOAR RULES PLZ
4. If three teams are still tied, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative. The latest BCS standings have Wisconsin at 9, Ohio State at 11, and MSU at 14. Ohio State will likely jump the Badgers in the next few weeks, if they both continue winning - Ohio State has a stronger out-of-conference win against the Miami Hurricanes and their computer average will be bumped after a win against the Hawkeyes. There's a chance Wisconsin could squeak in, but most likely Ohio State will go to the Rose Bowl. If both Wisconsin and OSU keep winning, there is no chance MSU will jump them, regardless of how they do.
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| The Bobcat just did what we all wanted to do... |
So there you have it! If MSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa all win their last batch of games, MSU goes to the Rose Bowl. I suggest you park your ass in front of the TV on November 20th and perform whatever superstitious ritual you know to enable Iowa to beat Ohio State.
