Now is the winter of our discontent...

Discontent doesn't begin to describe my hatred of the BCS as the regular season of college football expires and the postseason preparation begins.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and MSU are dead even at the top of the Big Ten standings: 10-1 overall, 6-1 in Big Ten play.  This Saturday is the last game for all 3.  Wisconsin has Northwestern at home, OSU has Michigan at home, and the Spartans head to Happy Valley to take on Penn State.  Here's a quick breakdown about all the tie-breaker nonsense, in case you missed it:

1. If all 3 win, Wisconsin gets the Rose Bowl, OSU goes to a different BCS game, MSU gets nothing special.
This is the most likely scenario.  No team has much success in Camp Randall, very low chance that a floundering Michigan team upsets a strong OSU team in the Shoe.  Wisconsin wins the Rose Bowl tiebreaker because they are highest in the BCS polls.  Great system, right?

2. If one of the three teams stumble, the tie-breakers shift slightly
If OSU loses, MSU wins the new tie-breaker.  If Wisconsin loses, OSU goes.  No reshuffling happens if MSU loses, as they are the lowest down the totem pole currently.

3. On the off chance that all 3 are defeated this weekend, you might as well start praying to whatever god(s)/people/forces of nature you believe in.
In that case, the BCS poll would again determine the Rose Bowl representative, but depending on what team loses worst in the voters eyes, the order of the 3 teams could change.  Too much crazy.


NOW THAT'S OUT OF THE WAY.  Here's what to watch for in the PSU - MSU Matchup.

RUNNING WILD
Both teams had high hopes for their running games early on.  PSU's Evan Royster had earned a lot of buzz before this season as one of the Big Ten's best returning RB's.  However, a restructured offensive line has prevented the talented back from being a force in the PSU offense.  Don't expect that to change much against an MSU front seven that has been well-prepared against the run.  On the other side, MSU's running game looked spectacular in the early season, but the wear and tear of the season has shown itself constantly in the MSU OLine - less holes have opened up and freshman phenom Le'Veon Bell has all but disappeared.  It'll be interesting to see if MSU can get their ground game going.

ALL BANGED UP
Kirk Cousins has been banged up for the back half of the season.  He's taken quite a few hits in the last month of so and it has shown.  The "throwing off the back foot" problem that has led to several bad passes and interceptions are a result of a lingering ankle injury as well as a diminished confidence in his pass protection.  His effort in the Purdue game was nothing short of heroic - he put up fantastic numbers in the second half of that game, despite hardly being able to walk on one leg.  He described his ankle pain as "excruciating" during the game and simply refused to stay out of the game.  It'll be very clear early in the game whether Cousins injuries have subsided a bit, or if he's going to have to turn in another heroic game to get the W.

FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH/TIME TO MOVE ON
Is Joe Pa ever going to leave? He's 84.  The guy WILL die either at practice or at a game.  He announced last week that he will return for the 2011 season, provided his bionic heart/kidneys/liver/legs are still working. Can't say I blame him, I hate the idea of retirement, too.  This game will mark the final installment of the "Land Grant Trophy" battle as the Big Ten moves to divisions next year - MSU and PSU are in separate groups.  PSU has been a nightmare for MSU, so personally, I'm happy to see it go.

There you have it.  Hope you enjoyed Thanksgiving and the time away from work.  Here's the broadcast info for the two games Spartans should watch (sorry, but you're going to have to root for Michigan if you want the Rose Bowl.)  Go Green!

UM at OSU: 12pm, ABC/espn3.com
MSU at PSU: 12pm, ESPN2/espn3.com

And here they come, down the stretch

Not much to wrap up for the Minnesota game.  MSU cruised, doesn't prove much except Edwin Baker is a stud and the Spartans are 9-1.  I've gotten a couple questions about what the Big Ten's situation is for bowl games, so I'll do my best.  Here's some tidbits about the bowl-bound teams to look for:

Michigan State
Why not start with the Michigan Staters? The Rose Bowl tiebreakers were elaborated on in an earlier post, but it  may get extra messy in the home stretch.  Wisconsin, OSU, Iowa, and MSU are tied at the top.  Wisconsin and Iowa win out, MSU goes to the Rose Bowl.  However, if OSU beats Iowa in a few weeks, an 11-1 MSU team in the top ten nationally may not get to a BCS bowl.  Only two teams from each conference can go to BCS games - if Wisconsin and OSU win out, both will be ranked ahead of MSU so the BCS would make the logical choice.  I believe riots are warranted if that happens.

Michigan (Skunkbears)
Bowl eligible in the worst kind of way.  Pretty sure Bo rolled over in his grave and Woody laughed like hell on Saturday, when the Wolverines won a 67-65 nailbiter in Ann Arbor.  This basketball score brought to you be Terrible Defense! I will give credit where credit is due - Denard Robinson went out with a head injury, and Forcier came in and played a solid game.  The Big Ten will likely get 8 bowl-eligible teams, so Michigan should start looking at plane tickets for Florida or Texas.

Ohio State
These guys again? Stop hogging all the glory.  Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan still on the schedule.  The Bucknuts have been anything but flashy this season, with Terelle Pryor seemingly being held back a bit.  OSU fans have been criticizing Tressel quite a bit over the years because he's still playing smashmouth, grinding football without letting Pryor run wild as much as possible.  OSU can hope for a BCS bowl, but not the Rose Bowl (unless Wisconsin craps the bed).

Wisconsin
They beat Iowa and Ohio State.  That's impressive.  MSU's win against the Badgers looks that much more impressive late in the season.  They've got a relatively easy schedule remaining - Indiana, Michigan, and Northwestern - so they're hoping for Ohio State to win out, which would lead to a Badger trip to Pasadena

Iowa
So close to the elusive Rose Bowl...but can't quite get there.  Unless they beat OSU and Wisconsin and MSU both drop one, Iowa's best argument is Capital One Bowl.  They'll be ranked high, but once again the two-teams-per league rule is in effect.

Penn State/Illinois/Purdue/Northwestern
I lumped these 4 in together because they're in the same boat - three are at 6 wins with Illinois likely to get one more against Fresno State in the season finale.  They'll contend for a better bowl slot - the Capital One bowl and Outback will be taken, but there will be a giant clusterfuck to determine what team goes where.  If someone accurately guesses this week, you get 10 dollars from yours truly.

Minnesota
Flailing right now.  Head Coach fired, staff is likely not going to be around after the season.  Gophers don't have much hope to get another win so they're playing for dignity in their last two games.

Indiana
Gotta feel for the Hoosiers.  Ben Chappell is one of the best QB's in the Big Ten and they've got the best WR corps as well.  They have yet to win a Big Ten game, with 3 games slipping through their fingers.  Quite literally, in regards to the most recent game.  4th and 10 with the game on the line, a well-placed pass to the end zone was caught...but subsequently bobbled and dropped.  A catch would have certainly meant Indiana getting one of the biggest wins in recent memory, upsetting the Big Ten leading Hawkeyes.  They need two wins out of Purdue, Penn State, and Wisconsin to go bowling - doesn't look good.

There you have it.  Football 101 on Tuesday.  I'm going to summarize the ridiculous controversies and headlines from the season so far.  See you then!

Football 101 - Rose Bowl Tiebreakers

4 weeks of Big Ten play to go, 4 teams tied atop the standings.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, MSU, and Iowa all have one loss in conference play and the results of the next few weeks will determine who gets to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.  Exciting? Yes. Bad News? The tiebreaker rules are the literary equivalent to an Escher painting.  Here's the remaining schedule for each team.  The bolded match-ups are the ones that each team will be heavily favored in...

MSU: Minnesota, BYE, Purdue, @ Penn State
OSU: BYE, Penn State, @ Iowa, Michigan
Wisky: @Purdue, Indiana, @ Michigan, Northwestern
Iowa: @Indiana, @ Northwestern, OSU, @ Minnesota


I'm leaving Penn State as a question mark...Both MSU and OSU will be favored against them in their match-up, but not as intensely as the other games.  As you can see, it looks like MSU and Wisconsin have a good chance to win out, leaving both with a 7-1 conference record.  Additionally, the winner of the Iowa/OSU game will likely finish with a 7-1 record.  So where do we go from here???

You may remember a similar debacle between MSU, Penn State, and Ohio State that occured in 2008 - if MSU had beaten PSU in the last game of the season, all three would've had 1 conference loss and MSU would have gone to the Rose Bowl due to tiebreaker rules.  The added wrinkle this year is that MSU and OSU did not play each other.  So let's assume two scenarios...

SCENARIO 1 - Iowa beats Ohio State

Final Standings:
MSU 11-1 (7-1)
Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)
Iowa 10-2 (7-1)
Ohio State 10-2 (6-2)

Here's the progression of tiebreakers for 3 teams, per the Big Ten Conference.  They go down this list, in order:

1. If one of the tied teams beat the other two, that team goes. Doesn't apply.  Iowa lost to Wisconsin, Wisconsin lost to MSU, MSU lost to Iowa.

2. If two of the three teams beat the third team, third team is eliminated and you go to the 2-team tiebreaker. Again, doesn't apply

Thanks, Herky, for getting owned by Arizona's DLine

3. If one team has worse OVERALL record than other two, they are eliminated from consideration.  In this case, Iowa's extra loss eliminates them from the Rose Bowl discussion.


We are now down to a two-team tie between MSU and Wisconsin.  Since MSU beat Wisconsin during the season, MSU smells roses! But what about the other scenario???












SCENARIO 2 - Ohio State beats Iowa

MSU 11-1 (7-1)

Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1)

Ohio State 11-1 (7-1)

Iowa 9-3 (6-2)

Once again, the first 2 rules do not apply.  Additionally, the tied teams all have the same overall record.  MOAR RULES PLZ

4. If three teams are still tied, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative. The latest BCS standings have Wisconsin at 9, Ohio State at 11, and MSU at 14.  Ohio State will likely jump the Badgers in the next few weeks, if they both continue winning - Ohio State has a stronger out-of-conference win against the Miami Hurricanes and their computer average will be bumped after a win against the Hawkeyes.  There's a chance Wisconsin could squeak in, but most likely Ohio State will go to the Rose Bowl.  If both Wisconsin and OSU keep winning, there is no chance MSU will jump them, regardless of how they do.

The Bobcat just did what we all wanted to do...

So there you have it! If MSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa all win their last batch of games, MSU goes to the Rose Bowl.  I suggest you park your ass in front of the TV on November 20th and perform whatever superstitious ritual you know to enable Iowa to beat Ohio State. 

Wrap Up: MSU @ Iowa

Apologies from yours truly for being absent this week.  I've been battling a virus that's been going around campus recently and this fell by the wayside a bit.  Didn't make it any easier with what happened on Saturday...

In case you missed the second half because you were blackout drunk, final score was 37-6.  There's something about big games that plays mind games with the Spartans.  After coming out flat in the first half against Illinois and Northwestern, it seemed like the team would recognize and respond knowing that the same couldn't be done against one of the best defenses in the country.  The problem, it seems, is that after 9 weeks of football, the team is emotionally and physically drained.  Although it may not seem like it due to the lack of players sitting out, the only logical conclusion is that there was not enough left in the tank to play the best game of the season on Saturday.

Kirk Cousins had arguably his worst game in a Spartans uniform.  It happens.  It's easy to see that he takes the team's performance very personally and puts a lot of pressure on himself to perform.  A little factoid that many didn't know going into the game is that he grew up a die-hard Iowa fan - his grandfather and great uncle played football for the Hawkeyes and his mom was a member of the dance team.  It's understandable that he'd put additional pressure on himself to play better for his family.  He made some very odd mistakes - fundamental errors that he hasn't made (to that degree) before in his career.  His ankle (which he broke in HS) has been taped up for the last few weeks, but it's unclear if that had any effect on his game play.  In any case, he'll bounce back and be fine.

As for the rest of the team, bright spots were few and far between.  The offensive line got dominated in the trenches by Iowa's D-Line.  In all fairness, there are at least 2 NFL players on that line in Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard, but I did expect some better play from the line. The running game hardly put up any numbers, mainly because it was virtually abandoned because of the early deficit.  Even Greg Jones looked mediocre, as he uncharacteristically missed a couple tackles and made a few bad reads.

As for the positives?  The future looks to be in good hands.  Freshman William Gholston keeps getting better - he tallied 5 tackles including a half tackle-for-loss and he's only had 8 tackles in the previous 8 games.  Jerel Worthy, who has been double-teamed most of the season, did significantly better when he was one-on-one (thank you to the 360-lb Antonio Jeremiah for freeing him up).  RS Freshman Bennie Fowler, who caught the "Mouse Trap" pass, played for the injured Keshawn Martin and played like an upperclassman.  The defensive line as a whole is getting better at pressuring the QB, as well.

Anyone want to take a guess about what was said here???

Was the game a giant ass-whooping? You bet.  Should the team (and fans) be discouraged at all? No way.  The team's performance wasn't indicative of how they normally play.  There's 3 regular season games to go and the Spartans will still be favored in all of them.  There's numerous Rose Bowl tie-breakers to discuss, and I'll cover that in Football 101 tomorrow.  Next week's game is vs. Minnesota, Noon on the BTN.  Go Green!

Wrap Up: MSU @ Northwestern

I'm kind of sad MSU and Northwestern weren't made into a "protected rivalry" in the new Big Ten divisions - they've played some amazingly great games the past few years.  This last one was no exception.  This was MSU's first time outside the State of Michigan (road games were in Ann Arbor and Detroit) and it appeared to show in the first half.  The Spartans came out flat and went down 17-0 early.  No matter who your opponent is, that's tough to break out of.

Northwestern made life tough by stopping the run.  I don't think "stopping" gives them enough credit - it was more likely "bringing the running game to a screeching halt." The Spartans had close to no success in running plays in the first half and adjusted at halftime and went pass happy in the second half.  The play-action pass, one of MSU's specialties, still worked against the Wildcats, but NU was able to put pressure on Cousins repeatedly, putting some hard hits on him after he threw the ball.  Cousins is likely feeling it today - he already had a brace on one of his ankles and a dinged up shoulder from the Illinois game.  Get some rest, Captain Kirk!

Dantonio and defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi made some great adjustments at the half.  The defense was clearly struggling for the first 30 minutes of play, with veteran athletes with their hands on their hips, trying to catch their breath, at the end of the first quarter.  The D got some great pressure on QB Dan Persa in the second half and racked up 8 sacks - they had 10 sacks in the previous 7 games COMBINED.  Game ball on defense has to go to Defensive End Tyler Hoover, who made 9 tackles, 2 tackles-for-loss, a forced fumble at the 1-yard line, and 2 sacks.

So lets talk about the play of the game.  It would've been the play of the day had Wisconsin's punter not ran for 17 yards from his own 22 yard line to keep a drive going (attention whore).  Down by 6 in the 4th quarter, Dantonio decided to try a fake punt to try to get the first down.  However, it was a slightly bizarre setup: it was 4th and 4 and MSU decided to let the play clock run out, take a delay of game penalty and be backed up 5 yards.  This is relatively normal practice when a team is punting from MSU's location on the field - it makes it a little easier for the punter to try to get the ball deep in opponent's territory.  However, if you're trying to fake it, it's a terrible move to make the first down 5 more yards away.  Apparently Dantonio's crazy like a fox, because "Mouse Trap" worked to perfection.

Last point: The WR corps deserves some mad props.  Keith Nichol, who just started playing WR this spring, made some crazy grabs down the stretch to keep drives going.  Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham both caught for more than 100 yards. Bennie Fowler, a RS Freshman in for the injured Keshawn Martin, scored a rushing TD and caught the "Mouse Trap" pass.  Impressive all around.  (P.S. Martin was out because he rolled his ankle.  He said he should be good to go next week).

So there you have it.  Remember 2008 where there was a giant clusterfuck atop the Big Ten standings to see who goes to Pasadena? Well, it's happening again.  After Saturday's action, there are 4 title contenders: Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, and MSU.  MSU is the only one without a conference loss - Iowa and Ohio State both lost to Wisconsin, and Wisconsin was beaten by MSU.  Saturday's game @ Iowa effectively answers the question: does MSU win the Big Ten? or will it share it with others?  This feels like a parallel bizarro universe.  If I'm dreaming, don't wake me up.